* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 08/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 52 56 53 48 41 37 32 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 52 56 53 48 41 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 43 41 35 29 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 10 11 6 3 4 5 10 11 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 3 2 2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 70 81 97 110 123 117 137 355 31 325 347 328 341 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.6 30.0 27.8 24.3 23.0 22.2 21.6 21.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 171 171 173 167 144 107 93 83 77 74 75 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 86 85 83 81 74 67 62 62 62 60 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 74 72 74 76 64 74 45 81 62 40 17 -14 200 MB DIV 95 88 69 58 78 45 62 8 13 9 -5 -17 -7 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 2 -1 -1 2 0 3 4 9 9 14 LAND (KM) 170 170 130 164 211 321 197 280 467 556 602 792 1044 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 9 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 26 25 24 9 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 16. 23. 26. 26. 25. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 27. 31. 28. 23. 16. 12. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 08/27/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 08/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##