* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 08/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 56 58 55 51 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 56 58 55 51 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 47 52 51 44 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 16 10 6 1 9 8 5 10 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 5 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 52 51 60 69 79 90 10 347 16 295 278 281 262 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 29.7 26.9 23.2 21.9 21.1 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 167 169 169 170 164 135 97 83 75 71 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 8 9 9 8 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 87 85 86 86 83 79 76 69 64 56 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 70 66 60 62 49 56 39 66 72 74 79 59 200 MB DIV 92 82 83 88 76 74 50 54 16 6 24 -1 -11 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 3 0 11 0 16 10 28 19 LAND (KM) 147 117 107 91 75 40 72 293 197 304 499 763 1103 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.8 19.1 20.6 22.2 23.6 24.5 25.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.5 99.3 100.2 101.1 103.2 105.6 108.6 111.8 115.0 118.4 122.0 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 15 16 17 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 50 53 47 36 28 24 30 11 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 31. 33. 32. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 31. 33. 30. 26. 23. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 08/26/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 08/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##