* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 08/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 39 43 52 62 69 71 67 63 58 53 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 39 43 52 62 69 71 67 63 58 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 44 53 62 71 72 62 50 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 19 16 7 5 7 12 10 7 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 67 55 52 57 66 83 100 314 335 333 307 290 283 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 28.9 25.4 22.5 21.5 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 165 166 169 170 170 156 120 89 79 70 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -51.5 -51.9 -50.7 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 9 7 11 8 8 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 88 87 86 86 87 83 77 72 66 60 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 66 74 69 64 68 65 55 58 50 59 63 32 200 MB DIV 82 92 96 92 106 68 93 41 47 -10 15 -5 -20 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 2 -3 4 -2 7 0 4 35 LAND (KM) 153 128 105 93 83 68 53 144 189 247 411 591 872 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.6 21.2 22.7 24.0 24.8 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.6 98.3 99.1 99.9 101.8 104.1 106.8 109.9 113.1 116.4 119.9 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 11 14 15 17 17 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 50 53 47 38 27 23 26 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 35. 34. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 27. 37. 44. 46. 42. 38. 33. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 08/26/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 08/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##