* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 08/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 44 55 65 73 76 74 68 61 55 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 44 55 65 73 76 74 68 61 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 45 54 65 74 77 68 53 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 15 15 10 3 3 11 12 12 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 5 0 2 2 7 3 6 SHEAR DIR 62 65 61 72 81 88 88 25 343 4 337 336 305 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 29.6 26.8 23.2 21.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 162 164 165 168 169 170 163 134 97 80 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 8 9 9 7 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 86 87 87 85 86 85 80 76 68 63 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 52 64 72 67 66 68 62 48 65 65 52 32 200 MB DIV 74 70 80 90 95 106 111 68 42 23 9 -10 -34 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 2 0 3 -2 -2 15 26 LAND (KM) 193 160 142 113 104 96 69 102 300 221 355 549 844 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.5 18.9 20.4 22.1 23.5 24.7 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.6 97.4 98.2 99.0 100.9 103.2 105.8 108.9 112.0 115.5 119.3 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 11 13 16 17 17 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 45 53 50 32 28 26 12 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 25. 32. 35. 35. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 30. 40. 48. 51. 49. 43. 36. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 08/25/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 08/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##