* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 08/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 52 61 70 71 73 78 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 52 61 70 71 73 78 78 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 42 49 56 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 15 14 14 11 14 16 14 13 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 -4 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 53 43 46 56 53 50 49 51 47 27 15 356 345 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 156 157 159 161 164 167 168 167 159 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.2 -53.2 -51.8 -52.5 -51.1 -51.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 5 8 7 9 8 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 78 80 82 82 83 81 82 81 82 82 81 79 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 12 13 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 40 30 38 47 53 47 30 17 41 54 89 200 MB DIV 53 57 72 84 82 101 125 95 140 76 92 54 56 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 -8 -4 -3 -7 0 LAND (KM) 431 413 403 417 420 341 285 265 267 262 326 370 425 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.6 18.1 19.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.6 94.1 94.8 95.4 96.9 98.6 100.6 102.7 105.1 107.8 110.5 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 10 14 16 17 30 39 39 35 25 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 32. 41. 50. 51. 53. 58. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 08/25/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 08/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##