* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 19 21 24 42 41 29 22 23 20 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 7 9 8 -2 0 0 5 8 6 3 SHEAR DIR 105 65 81 75 64 48 39 23 345 321 303 310 280 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.1 25.6 23.7 21.1 20.4 20.0 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 150 150 153 147 122 103 76 68 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 77 83 84 89 90 84 79 70 65 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 97 122 157 148 89 66 89 97 69 49 16 4 200 MB DIV 47 51 44 82 130 200 134 62 42 -26 -23 -6 -13 700-850 TADV 2 1 5 10 13 40 8 -35 -31 -9 10 33 20 LAND (KM) 1168 1208 1237 1195 1157 917 700 554 532 685 889 1206 1435 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.1 11.8 12.8 15.3 18.2 20.6 22.5 23.8 24.7 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.0 113.9 113.2 112.4 110.2 110.0 111.8 114.8 118.7 122.7 126.6 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 8 9 11 14 17 20 20 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 19 17 22 34 21 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 23. 23. 21. 19. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -16. -22. -27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/24/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)