* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 13 21 35 39 39 38 25 21 26 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 2 14 3 -1 9 6 8 8 5 SHEAR DIR 108 112 103 77 66 34 38 29 4 322 307 300 274 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 29.1 29.1 27.3 23.5 21.2 20.3 19.4 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 149 157 157 140 101 77 68 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 77 82 88 90 89 79 72 65 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 86 105 129 145 96 60 88 99 77 59 24 -4 200 MB DIV 49 62 64 48 57 157 182 138 72 14 -13 -9 -18 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 9 18 44 25 -12 -51 -25 22 4 50 LAND (KM) 1122 1179 1212 1206 1206 992 665 478 347 399 587 916 1134 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 12.9 12.3 11.8 11.2 11.6 14.1 17.2 20.2 22.6 24.5 25.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 113.8 113.6 113.0 112.4 109.6 108.0 108.9 111.7 115.4 119.6 124.0 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 13 14 17 21 21 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 20 18 22 56 46 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 25. 25. 23. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -21. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/23/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)