* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 31 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 31 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 9 11 14 33 46 44 40 31 27 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 -1 0 2 6 1 0 7 9 7 SHEAR DIR 107 122 132 96 74 74 54 51 18 6 343 308 308 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 27.2 24.4 21.9 20.4 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 147 150 151 151 153 154 139 110 84 69 64 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -51.5 -52.0 -50.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 67 72 80 86 90 88 79 72 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 28 59 77 83 149 143 75 69 84 80 55 8 200 MB DIV 23 22 35 49 64 88 138 152 80 31 -8 -10 -16 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 3 4 15 31 40 -33 -40 -34 -9 4 LAND (KM) 1076 1115 1155 1210 1266 1305 1127 792 623 480 552 730 1039 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.1 12.5 11.6 11.4 13.7 16.7 19.6 21.9 23.8 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 114.8 114.9 114.9 114.9 114.1 111.5 109.5 110.2 113.0 116.7 120.8 125.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 5 5 5 9 13 13 17 20 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 29 28 25 16 41 32 15 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 28. 28. 26. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -12. -20. -27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/23/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)