* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 35 34 32 27 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 35 34 32 27 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 28 26 23 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 8 8 7 21 29 46 41 43 32 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -2 0 -3 8 5 0 -2 -1 6 8 SHEAR DIR 98 114 132 135 97 82 64 60 41 30 360 334 322 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.3 25.9 23.8 21.1 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 144 147 148 151 151 154 149 125 104 76 64 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 68 73 80 88 89 84 79 71 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 21 53 70 102 169 125 77 80 82 63 22 200 MB DIV 23 22 16 33 40 84 109 180 121 47 15 -17 -19 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 2 1 5 19 31 11 -39 -52 6 -6 LAND (KM) 1066 1095 1125 1170 1214 1304 1296 1010 729 593 532 635 792 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.6 13.2 12.3 11.4 12.2 14.9 17.8 20.5 22.7 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 114.9 115.1 115.2 115.3 115.3 113.8 110.8 110.0 111.7 114.6 118.2 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 4 6 11 13 14 18 19 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 28 30 29 22 15 42 23 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 29. 30. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -9. -14. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 9. 7. 2. -4. -11. -19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/23/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)