* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 43 46 46 43 38 31 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 43 46 46 43 38 31 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 35 37 37 32 27 21 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 7 6 14 23 43 46 45 41 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 0 -4 0 4 12 0 0 6 8 SHEAR DIR 105 113 122 132 108 76 98 59 48 20 11 348 319 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.9 27.2 24.1 21.5 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 145 146 149 152 152 155 139 107 81 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.2 -51.8 -50.5 -51.7 -50.4 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 65 67 70 78 86 91 88 81 73 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -3 0 18 46 70 148 146 78 62 80 75 35 200 MB DIV 48 28 36 30 40 56 110 136 159 83 13 -2 -15 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 2 2 1 6 25 53 -20 -51 -28 -1 LAND (KM) 1095 1113 1130 1162 1195 1278 1344 1163 803 606 437 486 653 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.5 12.7 11.7 11.3 13.5 16.7 19.8 22.4 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.1 115.2 115.4 115.5 115.6 114.8 111.9 109.4 110.0 112.6 116.3 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 9 14 14 18 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 29 29 26 16 34 35 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 31. 30. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 21. 21. 18. 13. 6. -2. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/23/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)