* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 33 38 40 40 39 38 35 31 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 33 38 40 40 39 38 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 27 26 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 9 10 10 25 32 42 43 43 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 1 5 6 6 -3 3 11 SHEAR DIR 94 94 119 101 105 100 76 56 53 53 38 19 348 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.9 29.4 28.3 26.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 142 145 150 152 150 156 162 150 126 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -52.6 -51.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 66 67 71 75 80 82 86 85 77 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -4 4 5 41 57 131 102 62 49 52 28 200 MB DIV 57 51 37 25 10 32 47 85 109 103 76 84 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 2 2 9 17 25 25 6 -19 -15 LAND (KM) 1095 1091 1087 1121 1156 1278 1394 1355 1146 745 330 218 45 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.2 13.9 12.7 11.3 10.2 10.4 13.2 17.1 20.5 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.1 115.3 115.4 115.5 115.6 115.0 113.3 110.3 107.9 107.0 107.8 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 5 7 8 12 15 19 18 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 24 28 30 28 14 16 52 50 18 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 13. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 15. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/22/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)