* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 46 52 55 55 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 46 52 55 55 58 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 21 23 25 27 30 31 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 8 9 12 18 29 35 36 40 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 1 -2 -3 -2 -5 -5 0 10 2 2 SHEAR DIR 117 144 123 100 117 91 70 64 61 61 33 21 355 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 27.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 138 136 136 140 149 152 151 152 157 144 102 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 -51.7 -50.6 -51.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 67 63 61 62 64 65 71 80 84 88 89 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 11 15 17 20 20 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -15 -11 -1 16 59 73 98 127 72 62 80 200 MB DIV 67 60 60 50 36 28 36 38 94 135 127 80 70 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 7 5 33 11 -48 LAND (KM) 1086 1081 1081 1097 1114 1194 1319 1437 1420 1187 839 518 267 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.3 13.0 11.4 10.4 10.8 13.1 16.6 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.4 116.8 116.9 116.2 114.4 111.6 109.4 108.9 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 3 3 5 8 9 11 14 16 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 20 17 15 22 28 18 13 40 39 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 12. 16. 16. 20. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 26. 32. 35. 35. 38. 36. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/22/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)