* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 08/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 51 58 63 63 59 53 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 30 28 38 43 40 35 30 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 28 27 33 37 33 37 32 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 3 4 11 7 9 7 6 11 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 3 4 1 -1 1 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 15 31 4 331 291 314 317 16 307 293 276 247 238 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.5 30.5 29.9 26.0 19.9 19.2 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 172 171 170 168 171 171 166 125 62 62 62 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -50.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 8 7 11 8 12 7 6 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 88 85 86 85 83 82 78 77 75 71 71 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 33 40 43 46 45 59 46 43 16 -4 -25 200 MB DIV 54 60 54 69 65 100 51 46 26 30 2 0 9 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 -6 0 -7 -9 -19 -16 -7 5 LAND (KM) 158 107 77 40 6 -76 -23 120 33 10 48 212 352 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.3 19.0 20.7 22.4 24.0 25.6 27.1 28.4 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.5 99.3 100.2 101.1 103.1 105.1 107.2 109.6 112.2 114.8 117.3 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 61 72 74 52 5 9 52 49 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 7. 16. 26. 34. 37. 36. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 33. 38. 39. 34. 28. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 08/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)