* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 12 11 8 3 6 8 12 13 11 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 8 9 7 8 0 0 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 39 52 86 117 112 128 172 174 143 134 130 123 137 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.3 24.5 23.3 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 126 123 121 119 117 117 116 113 106 93 80 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 61 57 55 55 50 52 52 53 52 52 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 93 96 97 102 88 93 102 95 91 68 56 60 200 MB DIV 56 36 51 45 14 12 0 6 5 26 -5 16 0 700-850 TADV -3 0 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 347 389 431 476 521 563 574 596 579 549 497 485 483 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.8 18.0 18.4 19.2 20.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.2 108.8 109.4 109.9 110.9 111.4 111.8 111.9 112.2 112.7 113.6 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 2 4 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. -20. -25. -30. -34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##