* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 20 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 12 10 8 9 16 14 16 19 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 8 7 11 0 2 3 3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 14 40 60 85 133 153 174 185 178 170 126 133 122 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.4 23.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 126 123 114 112 111 110 108 104 98 90 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 58 56 54 54 55 51 52 51 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 93 92 96 96 99 99 106 108 94 77 59 57 200 MB DIV 75 55 53 60 41 -5 45 9 5 -12 -5 3 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -4 -6 1 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 347 349 351 377 404 467 467 459 456 457 482 538 602 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 5 5 4 2 1 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -18. -23. -29. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##