* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 29 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 29 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 9 11 11 9 14 16 18 17 11 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 2 1 10 1 7 4 5 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 34 34 54 80 109 158 180 173 186 151 132 117 128 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.4 25.0 23.9 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 128 126 124 121 117 116 113 110 100 79 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 61 58 60 60 59 61 61 59 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 91 105 102 95 91 90 97 104 106 85 65 49 200 MB DIV 53 68 56 39 47 30 44 36 18 27 30 54 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 0 4 3 8 0 2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 324 320 316 327 338 360 374 381 384 397 391 279 188 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##