* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 31 33 35 35 33 31 29 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 31 33 35 35 33 31 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 17 14 11 7 13 20 21 19 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 3 2 4 0 2 0 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 46 39 37 48 61 74 156 186 174 170 146 149 104 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 132 132 133 135 135 136 137 136 131 129 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 67 65 64 61 61 64 67 63 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 40 46 69 83 90 86 70 75 74 88 81 58 200 MB DIV 50 38 47 40 74 45 33 5 29 9 34 6 26 700-850 TADV 5 6 13 12 22 10 3 3 4 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 353 332 313 302 292 257 231 183 138 118 123 159 219 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.3 107.0 106.9 106.7 106.3 106.3 106.1 106.0 106.2 106.8 107.2 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 2 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 16 17 11 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##