* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 26 28 27 27 24 24 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 26 28 27 27 24 24 24 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 22 21 22 16 16 14 18 21 21 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 1 -1 -3 -5 -1 -4 -2 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 52 52 45 41 49 60 102 114 125 116 115 90 89 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 135 136 137 136 137 140 143 146 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 73 70 67 62 60 64 68 69 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 8 9 10 10 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 16 37 43 53 72 68 72 54 45 36 50 42 200 MB DIV 34 52 66 43 42 76 60 78 43 56 80 54 33 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 6 6 -2 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 375 386 398 424 452 487 502 478 413 316 227 137 44 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.0 15.5 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.4 107.2 107.3 107.2 106.5 105.4 104.7 104.5 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 3 1 0 2 5 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 11 14 23 28 36 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -5. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 3. 2. 2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/18/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##