* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 21 19 18 18 19 19 19 20 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 21 19 18 18 19 19 19 20 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 16 17 18 22 17 14 14 18 23 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 6 -3 2 2 0 0 -3 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 51 62 54 49 50 50 86 114 146 135 125 119 103 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 127 129 134 137 136 136 138 139 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 76 74 70 66 62 63 63 65 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 3 13 25 41 62 79 72 73 60 54 41 53 200 MB DIV 32 36 54 94 82 56 62 61 49 30 47 61 91 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 0 -1 -3 8 0 2 0 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 408 401 394 414 436 495 547 577 538 467 376 310 262 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.0 16.6 15.8 15.1 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 107.9 107.8 107.6 107.8 107.6 107.0 106.0 105.3 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 4 4 4 2 0 2 4 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 5 5 5 8 9 8 9 17 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/18/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##