* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 37 35 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 37 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 24 21 17 18 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 13 12 12 18 26 33 44 48 59 73 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 3 0 1 -3 0 -2 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 106 119 128 152 177 182 220 218 232 235 238 242 242 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.7 26.1 24.2 23.7 26.0 29.1 28.3 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 151 147 143 126 105 99 123 157 150 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 5 3 1 3 2 4 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 79 78 68 58 49 45 47 52 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 17 16 16 15 13 10 8 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 29 33 24 25 31 25 20 25 0 -17 -33 200 MB DIV 108 108 106 75 51 51 25 15 23 25 17 11 11 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 6 9 7 9 0 -3 -6 0 -18 -23 LAND (KM) 617 591 587 596 526 356 209 106 -18 -39 -365 -593 -303 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.3 18.3 20.9 23.2 25.1 26.4 27.7 29.0 29.8 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.7 109.4 110.3 111.2 112.7 113.4 113.3 112.3 110.2 106.9 102.9 98.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 14 14 14 11 8 9 14 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 27 14 7 2 0 0 0 57 0 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -18. -28. -38. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 3. -7. -13. -20. -28. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/12/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/12/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING