* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/12/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 42 40 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 42 40 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 16 13 13 23 27 36 41 47 55 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 0 3 0 -1 0 -4 -1 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 92 99 124 137 157 193 196 225 218 228 237 238 241 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.0 26.7 24.7 23.0 22.4 23.3 27.3 29.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 149 145 132 110 91 84 94 137 158 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 2 3 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 79 79 70 60 50 43 42 42 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 15 16 15 16 15 14 12 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 22 36 38 39 44 47 39 29 32 9 -8 200 MB DIV 114 98 98 109 89 61 39 30 12 17 6 16 35 700-850 TADV -2 -1 2 3 8 10 10 7 0 -1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 616 603 606 624 619 467 365 254 202 88 5 -127 -383 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.6 17.4 19.6 21.9 23.7 25.0 25.9 27.0 28.0 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.5 109.2 110.1 111.0 112.8 114.0 114.5 114.3 113.5 111.9 109.3 106.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 13 11 8 6 7 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 35 20 10 14 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 13. 16. 16. 17. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -21. -28. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 17. 15. 10. -1. -13. -20. -24. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/12/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/12/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING