* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 45 46 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 45 46 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 26 22 18 16 18 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 16 15 11 21 28 34 44 46 54 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 2 3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 95 96 107 123 139 188 192 225 221 230 238 239 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.6 25.9 23.9 22.3 22.2 25.5 28.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 153 150 141 124 102 84 83 119 155 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 4 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 77 78 78 66 55 47 44 44 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 14 15 15 15 13 12 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 16 25 35 35 38 29 25 21 21 15 -2 200 MB DIV 115 98 91 100 104 62 38 24 -1 9 22 9 17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 1 10 11 9 1 -3 -2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 628 623 616 613 631 558 442 316 233 116 -58 -59 -394 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 18.2 20.6 22.7 24.6 25.8 27.1 28.3 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.8 108.3 109.2 110.0 111.9 113.5 114.4 114.6 114.1 112.8 110.1 106.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 12 13 13 10 8 8 11 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 31 37 23 4 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 18. 19. 19. 20. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -19. -26. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 21. 16. 6. -5. -13. -18. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/12/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/12/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING