* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 46 46 38 28 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 46 46 38 28 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 28 25 21 19 21 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 15 19 15 20 33 41 50 59 75 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 7 2 -4 -2 -6 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 106 108 114 124 134 172 193 213 230 234 239 241 244 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.7 26.2 24.0 23.3 27.4 28.9 27.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 151 143 127 103 96 139 156 145 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 75 76 67 54 46 42 44 53 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 14 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 23 21 27 32 44 21 -1 0 3 -5 23 -10 200 MB DIV 82 107 109 92 104 89 41 14 18 5 22 30 41 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 10 13 14 6 -1 -1 15 9 LAND (KM) 541 541 528 529 550 526 393 227 137 11 -172 -602 -422 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.5 18.3 20.6 23.2 25.4 27.1 28.4 29.9 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.0 107.6 108.4 109.2 111.2 112.9 113.7 113.5 111.9 108.9 104.5 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 14 13 12 11 13 18 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 25 27 22 9 5 0 0 1 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -16. -26. -36. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 21. 21. 13. 3. -6. -13. -20. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/11/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/11/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING