* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 49 51 47 35 23 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 49 51 47 35 23 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 33 28 21 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 11 11 15 16 29 38 38 45 49 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 5 4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 101 110 116 123 129 157 192 199 226 231 238 240 245 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.1 26.9 24.9 23.1 21.8 22.0 26.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 153 152 146 134 113 93 78 81 125 163 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 2 1 3 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 76 75 76 71 60 51 43 39 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 14 21 23 21 40 35 5 -8 -16 -8 -1 0 200 MB DIV 62 76 101 105 90 90 60 29 11 -3 -3 0 -8 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 3 6 6 7 -1 -4 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 566 571 571 583 608 647 545 459 347 260 118 -41 -35 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 17.2 19.0 21.3 23.3 24.9 25.9 26.7 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.4 108.0 108.7 109.4 111.3 113.2 114.7 115.3 115.2 114.3 112.4 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 10 12 13 11 9 7 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 28 32 26 10 2 0 0 0 0 10 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 342 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 21. 21. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -17. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 26. 22. 10. -2. -10. -15. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/11/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/11/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING