* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 51 57 58 55 50 47 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 51 57 58 55 50 47 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 36 37 37 36 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 12 13 13 16 13 11 15 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 3 4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 126 115 119 130 140 145 158 161 194 185 216 209 232 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 156 155 153 151 147 144 143 135 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 10 8 9 6 7 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 73 74 72 72 72 72 69 68 59 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 11 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -2 6 9 9 27 10 25 1 0 -6 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 45 50 53 46 32 69 51 88 57 66 27 -1 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 1 3 1 9 8 13 4 2 LAND (KM) 286 300 290 295 309 330 303 330 359 324 222 185 234 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 16 17 18 19 21 19 15 15 15 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 32. 33. 30. 25. 22. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/10/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/10/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING