* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 57 63 66 65 63 60 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 57 63 66 65 63 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 42 49 55 61 64 64 61 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 9 11 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 84 106 119 115 103 136 112 132 133 187 169 207 211 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 157 156 155 156 154 153 150 144 134 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 10 8 10 8 9 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 73 75 77 75 75 73 72 63 54 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 0 2 5 12 22 14 17 -5 -10 -27 -22 200 MB DIV 73 64 51 49 58 29 64 59 90 55 48 17 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 3 2 14 7 9 1 LAND (KM) 274 287 300 317 317 305 331 344 329 357 277 210 211 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 9 10 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 15 15 17 20 20 20 17 10 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 38. 41. 40. 38. 35. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/10/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/10/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING