* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 41 51 59 65 65 60 54 46 40 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 41 51 59 65 65 60 54 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 61 64 63 57 47 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 6 6 7 7 11 16 24 31 45 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -2 4 9 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 59 61 87 105 87 109 172 181 198 207 215 222 238 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.6 26.0 24.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 158 158 157 154 149 141 124 104 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 9 9 10 8 7 4 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 73 73 74 70 68 67 67 55 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -2 -1 6 8 20 12 15 12 15 1 6 0 200 MB DIV 74 84 76 61 58 51 32 71 65 74 45 19 -11 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 -1 2 1 7 5 14 14 14 LAND (KM) 290 278 267 258 252 244 270 307 397 375 299 143 33 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.2 19.6 21.5 23.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 101.1 101.7 102.3 103.5 105.1 106.8 108.7 110.8 112.5 113.2 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 11 12 12 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 19 17 16 19 21 18 11 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 26. 34. 40. 40. 35. 29. 21. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/09/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/09/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING