* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 46 56 66 70 71 70 60 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 46 56 66 70 71 70 60 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 36 40 43 43 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 12 12 11 11 8 11 16 19 30 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -2 0 7 2 0 SHEAR DIR 102 77 79 88 99 86 107 119 162 166 168 200 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.2 25.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 158 158 157 157 153 146 136 119 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 10 8 10 8 7 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 75 75 74 72 67 65 63 59 48 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 9 9 11 13 15 16 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -4 0 7 8 12 21 13 20 2 -13 -15 200 MB DIV 59 74 84 82 72 71 22 52 57 83 61 15 -21 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 369 350 331 322 314 316 300 324 363 459 333 260 59 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.7 20.2 22.2 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.1 100.7 101.2 101.7 102.9 104.3 105.9 107.7 109.7 111.4 112.6 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 24 19 16 16 20 20 16 8 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 12. 13. 16. 18. 13. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 26. 36. 46. 50. 51. 50. 40. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/09/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/09/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING