* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 34 43 53 60 65 65 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 34 43 53 60 65 65 63 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 42 48 54 58 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 9 11 11 13 11 9 9 14 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 5 7 SHEAR DIR 39 77 71 59 59 75 67 95 95 159 175 201 196 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 158 158 157 158 157 154 148 141 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 6 9 8 10 8 8 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 73 74 75 74 73 70 69 66 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -14 -15 -13 -9 1 5 11 17 8 10 -3 -5 200 MB DIV 102 82 63 68 81 85 70 32 59 46 55 48 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 -2 2 6 6 5 LAND (KM) 439 413 396 374 353 338 336 333 346 360 414 262 74 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.9 18.5 20.6 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 98.8 99.4 99.9 100.3 101.1 102.2 103.6 105.3 107.2 109.1 110.6 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 8 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 31 33 31 21 15 19 21 18 10 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 38. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 33. 40. 45. 45. 43. 40. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/09/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/09/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING