* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 44 53 60 66 67 70 70 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 44 53 60 66 67 70 70 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 10 12 16 16 16 13 11 10 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -2 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 38 52 74 86 67 86 83 90 95 124 131 154 190 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 155 156 157 156 156 156 154 149 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 74 74 74 75 71 74 70 67 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -13 -16 -13 -16 -9 0 7 3 15 6 7 -9 200 MB DIV 76 88 75 78 89 107 82 55 41 45 57 61 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 7 LAND (KM) 521 495 470 456 446 416 406 424 438 437 434 450 411 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.9 16.0 17.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.5 99.1 99.6 100.1 100.8 101.5 102.6 103.9 105.4 107.1 108.8 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 21 28 32 32 28 18 13 17 23 21 14 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 33. 40. 46. 47. 50. 50. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/08/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/08/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING