* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 08/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 48 60 61 55 43 29 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 48 60 61 55 43 29 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 39 41 42 39 34 26 20 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 12 9 9 5 9 16 17 20 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 24 10 9 360 321 296 219 174 161 193 180 198 150 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 27.1 25.1 23.2 21.9 20.8 19.9 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 156 152 135 113 93 80 68 59 58 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.4 -51.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 73 74 71 66 66 60 54 45 40 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 17 18 20 20 25 25 24 21 17 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 37 47 52 50 87 76 102 80 65 29 34 200 MB DIV 74 61 41 59 59 65 119 115 122 41 47 -4 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -9 -9 -6 -2 -9 -1 1 5 0 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 731 684 627 564 502 426 368 329 345 354 288 293 347 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 8 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 23 19 16 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 20. 19. 17. 15. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 16. 14. 10. 4. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 30. 31. 25. 13. -1. -15. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 08/22/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 08/22/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##