* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 08/21/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 43 54 64 72 71 66 58 44 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 43 54 64 72 71 66 58 44 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 39 41 42 39 34 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 11 12 12 8 13 2 8 12 10 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -5 -2 0 0 -6 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 55 58 42 37 356 339 251 186 138 169 158 217 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.6 27.3 25.1 22.8 20.6 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 158 156 155 149 137 114 90 66 60 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -51.4 -51.8 -50.3 -51.0 -49.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 72 72 71 69 67 65 64 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 15 17 18 20 24 26 25 23 20 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 47 46 49 68 79 88 86 88 76 62 36 200 MB DIV 111 85 97 79 72 90 92 155 115 114 53 31 -19 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -6 -6 -1 -1 0 0 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 771 780 789 803 786 738 691 595 497 356 277 187 104 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.8 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.9 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.0 111.3 111.7 112.1 112.8 113.3 113.7 114.0 114.5 114.9 115.5 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 34 32 29 22 20 15 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 28. 30. 30. 28. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 22. 20. 18. 15. 7. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 18. 29. 39. 47. 46. 41. 33. 19. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 08/21/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 08/21/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##