* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 08/20/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 42 53 63 71 76 74 71 63 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 42 53 63 71 76 74 71 54 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 45 50 54 56 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 17 18 15 11 9 8 5 2 9 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 -6 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 46 39 37 29 28 24 5 354 342 265 217 217 224 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.7 26.7 24.2 23.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 154 155 154 156 158 160 152 132 106 94 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 69 70 73 75 74 76 75 75 69 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 10 12 14 17 20 21 23 22 21 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 17 33 44 33 32 43 66 76 93 70 63 200 MB DIV 55 69 78 79 108 102 82 70 65 110 113 107 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 -7 -1 -3 11 12 17 LAND (KM) 764 777 791 795 800 776 727 580 367 200 60 -39 26 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.3 16.3 17.8 19.9 22.3 24.8 27.2 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.9 110.2 110.5 110.7 110.9 111.1 111.2 111.5 111.9 112.9 113.6 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 4 7 9 11 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 34 34 33 36 30 19 13 3 0 0 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 19. 18. 14. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 17. 28. 38. 46. 51. 49. 46. 38. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 08/20/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 08/20/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##