* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 08/20/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 53 61 68 72 73 72 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 53 61 68 72 73 72 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 39 44 49 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 10 8 13 9 12 8 6 4 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 46 58 60 56 50 55 33 6 18 15 194 228 199 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.2 26.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 153 153 153 155 157 159 156 146 127 102 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -51.6 -52.2 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 72 70 68 70 68 70 70 67 70 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 10 14 15 17 19 20 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 19 26 22 26 36 30 46 34 59 64 80 200 MB DIV 75 54 52 61 84 93 97 95 90 58 77 47 82 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -5 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 714 727 738 751 765 807 831 826 730 570 382 275 106 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.6 18.2 20.2 22.1 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.3 108.8 109.2 109.5 110.2 110.9 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.3 112.7 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 7 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 44 42 40 32 31 36 25 16 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 33. 41. 48. 52. 53. 52. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 08/20/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 08/20/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##