* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 08/19/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 36 49 59 68 72 73 74 72 63 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 36 49 59 68 72 73 74 72 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 38 43 48 53 55 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 11 11 6 16 9 10 8 8 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -1 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 37 39 33 26 9 9 343 331 282 265 192 221 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 28.8 27.4 25.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 153 153 154 158 160 153 138 115 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -51.7 -52.7 -51.3 -52.1 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 73 72 70 70 71 69 67 66 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 12 14 16 17 18 21 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR -7 4 4 9 22 37 43 58 58 62 61 56 33 200 MB DIV 63 78 84 80 94 100 121 107 74 90 51 77 20 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -10 -7 -9 8 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 701 716 729 746 767 807 854 843 751 609 544 422 369 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 15.3 16.6 18.5 20.2 22.0 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.6 108.3 108.9 109.4 110.2 111.0 111.7 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.1 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 7 6 4 4 5 7 9 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 41 40 36 29 28 33 21 14 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 18. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 29. 39. 48. 52. 53. 54. 52. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 08/19/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 08/19/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##