* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 44 58 66 74 70 59 50 41 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 44 58 66 74 70 59 50 41 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 37 38 38 35 31 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 11 15 9 4 14 14 14 15 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -3 3 9 1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 17 358 331 6 22 30 43 99 92 61 72 103 20 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.9 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.1 22.8 22.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 162 164 155 138 125 116 105 92 84 82 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.0 -51.8 -50.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 86 87 87 89 87 87 86 82 79 78 75 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 16 16 15 18 23 25 30 31 28 25 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 16 27 27 27 29 67 94 112 127 142 124 111 69 200 MB DIV 93 127 154 159 155 172 127 97 34 -2 -7 16 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -6 -4 -7 -3 -1 -8 0 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 656 666 676 628 583 512 612 646 679 778 913 1073 1227 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 5 7 12 15 13 11 11 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 49 56 40 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 23. 24. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 6. 13. 17. 26. 26. 22. 18. 14. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 14. 28. 36. 44. 40. 29. 20. 11. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/23/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)