* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 47 61 72 81 81 69 63 49 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 47 61 72 81 81 69 63 49 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 49 49 46 40 33 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 5 6 6 7 2 12 14 15 13 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 8 -2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 23 27 338 319 354 5 338 89 83 66 38 36 24 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.3 26.5 25.4 24.7 23.0 21.9 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 161 162 161 149 130 118 110 93 82 79 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 86 87 87 87 88 85 86 85 82 80 74 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 17 16 17 20 24 29 31 27 28 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 8 16 20 25 23 39 68 91 108 124 99 90 70 200 MB DIV 104 90 106 147 152 174 120 159 76 30 -6 -11 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -4 -11 -9 -11 -11 -5 -8 -6 4 0 LAND (KM) 600 606 612 592 564 462 422 557 573 645 656 841 1061 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 6 8 12 13 12 12 11 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 47 51 54 54 21 7 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 25. 25. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 17. 25. 28. 22. 24. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 31. 42. 51. 51. 39. 33. 19. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/23/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)