* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 44 48 58 71 80 83 74 69 53 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 44 48 58 71 80 83 74 69 53 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 45 47 46 42 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 8 12 17 10 4 12 13 18 17 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -4 0 -2 -2 0 0 8 5 1 9 SHEAR DIR 14 11 7 330 323 360 17 22 89 59 49 51 40 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.3 27.9 26.2 25.3 24.7 23.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 159 161 162 159 145 127 116 110 98 89 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -50.7 -51.5 -50.1 -51.0 -50.1 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 86 86 87 89 89 88 86 83 83 77 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 18 18 20 25 29 33 31 32 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 10 6 9 17 18 28 54 64 106 121 133 108 96 200 MB DIV 111 113 114 134 149 167 199 157 140 49 39 -2 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -9 2 -3 -11 -9 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 625 636 648 651 657 583 474 499 609 646 707 815 1022 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 4 5 9 12 14 13 9 10 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 44 45 46 57 51 17 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 28. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 7. 12. 19. 26. 31. 28. 29. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 18. 28. 41. 50. 53. 44. 39. 23. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/23/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)