* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 41 53 70 80 86 80 74 64 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 41 53 70 80 86 80 74 64 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 43 47 49 48 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 8 4 15 15 11 11 13 10 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 3 3 8 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 355 10 26 51 29 1 20 19 56 68 73 69 84 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.1 27.1 25.9 24.8 23.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 160 160 156 145 135 123 112 101 93 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 83 82 83 85 86 87 86 87 82 78 75 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 13 15 17 24 29 33 32 30 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 4 13 32 54 66 74 97 122 154 135 116 200 MB DIV 91 119 128 127 145 121 151 144 146 54 -9 2 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 4 0 -6 -7 -3 0 LAND (KM) 647 678 704 707 712 700 696 683 722 686 798 893 1026 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 6 9 9 9 10 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 43 45 47 55 42 20 13 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 23. 29. 31. 32. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 18. 25. 31. 29. 27. 20. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 16. 28. 45. 55. 61. 55. 49. 39. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/22/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)