* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 31 37 51 60 70 79 74 64 56 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 31 37 51 60 70 79 74 64 56 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 36 39 42 41 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 9 12 11 13 20 12 13 19 17 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 -3 5 6 3 6 3 SHEAR DIR 12 13 360 39 37 14 31 20 84 61 84 89 114 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 27.7 26.4 25.6 24.4 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 159 159 160 161 160 156 142 128 120 107 94 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -51.2 -51.8 -50.7 -50.9 -49.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 83 86 86 87 88 87 82 73 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 13 15 21 23 27 33 33 27 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 2 1 11 35 53 60 93 130 173 162 121 200 MB DIV 78 94 132 139 138 157 182 163 143 98 6 -24 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 -3 2 -1 -7 -11 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 625 644 663 686 711 740 724 681 689 705 781 857 916 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 12 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 44 42 42 46 54 43 17 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 18. 25. 33. 32. 25. 22. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 12. 26. 35. 45. 54. 49. 39. 31. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/22/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)