* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/22/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 37 53 67 81 88 86 75 67 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 37 53 67 81 88 86 75 67 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 42 48 53 54 50 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 9 8 11 9 11 14 11 15 18 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -4 1 12 3 6 0 SHEAR DIR 342 12 13 14 42 18 7 12 30 74 76 66 97 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.3 26.6 25.7 24.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 160 160 160 161 159 148 131 121 109 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 84 83 87 86 88 87 83 72 67 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 18 22 28 33 34 29 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -17 -7 4 6 29 41 60 73 100 136 170 133 200 MB DIV 73 75 93 129 135 155 142 181 145 160 39 -17 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -8 -15 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 565 596 628 641 657 682 676 606 544 638 688 755 746 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 7 10 12 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 47 46 46 46 47 55 59 22 13 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 12. 19. 28. 34. 35. 29. 25. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 28. 42. 56. 63. 61. 50. 42. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/22/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)