* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 67 76 80 80 81 78 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 67 76 80 80 81 78 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 49 56 60 62 61 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 11 7 12 17 20 15 15 8 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -2 0 3 -2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 316 330 7 354 354 20 21 23 6 16 334 33 68 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.4 27.2 26.2 25.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 161 161 161 161 159 149 136 125 118 107 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.4 -51.2 -51.9 -50.5 -50.9 -49.9 -50.6 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 84 84 84 86 87 87 88 84 83 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 12 16 19 21 25 28 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -23 -17 -5 11 45 68 81 94 116 137 146 200 MB DIV 73 65 68 85 118 151 165 158 146 143 96 41 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -6 -7 -9 -15 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 535 556 578 600 622 656 641 621 607 662 666 694 733 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.9 14.0 15.3 16.5 17.3 17.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.8 102.4 102.9 103.4 104.4 105.6 107.1 108.8 110.5 112.3 114.0 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 48 47 48 47 49 58 57 25 16 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 18. 21. 25. 30. 30. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 42. 51. 55. 55. 56. 53. 46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/22/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)