* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 36 43 53 62 69 69 74 73 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 36 43 53 62 69 69 74 73 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 31 34 38 43 47 51 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 9 10 9 10 14 18 20 21 15 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 -3 2 0 4 8 SHEAR DIR 326 325 325 359 11 15 42 30 37 30 36 44 59 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.8 27.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 161 160 159 158 158 161 161 153 138 110 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 83 83 81 82 85 86 86 88 82 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 7 9 9 12 16 20 21 26 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -16 -20 -26 -23 -20 -7 -9 -4 5 -1 27 37 200 MB DIV 27 55 47 63 73 124 123 135 189 167 155 57 40 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -8 -5 -8 -11 LAND (KM) 505 542 579 625 672 753 805 795 686 556 413 341 345 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.9 11.2 12.4 14.0 16.0 18.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.9 101.5 102.1 102.7 103.6 104.5 105.1 105.5 106.0 106.7 107.9 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 7 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 47 44 39 32 31 34 50 63 26 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 21. 23. 30. 31. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 28. 37. 44. 44. 49. 48. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/21/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)