* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 06/21/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 29 32 31 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 29 32 31 32 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 21 23 26 28 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 18 16 11 4 13 3 4 8 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 0 2 2 -1 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 316 304 297 298 306 310 265 268 226 257 107 146 60 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.6 27.3 26.0 25.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 163 163 163 162 161 158 151 137 124 117 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 84 83 84 84 86 84 84 80 76 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 4 -2 -3 0 8 49 88 121 143 158 172 200 MB DIV 42 41 72 60 50 85 95 106 127 127 80 52 17 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -5 -3 0 0 -4 -1 -5 -2 0 -4 LAND (KM) 393 399 406 424 443 490 478 495 513 588 624 709 898 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.2 100.8 101.5 102.1 103.5 104.7 106.1 107.8 109.8 112.0 114.5 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 32 37 42 46 52 53 28 15 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 33. 37. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 9. 12. 11. 12. 12. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 06/21/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)