* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 09/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 32 40 47 50 48 41 34 29 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 32 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 8 12 21 31 42 56 61 49 37 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 3 7 8 0 -1 6 7 3 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 298 300 236 230 223 249 261 269 282 293 313 335 335 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.8 31.2 30.5 30.0 29.3 28.0 26.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 156 162 166 171 170 169 164 157 142 121 101 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 5 5 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 72 71 68 63 51 39 34 34 35 33 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 32 47 56 63 73 27 2 -36 -21 -51 -48 -72 200 MB DIV 71 84 93 98 110 32 -5 -51 -56 -49 -61 -70 -51 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 1 2 -1 0 0 -9 -4 -28 -2 LAND (KM) 340 293 291 221 120 29 -107 -207 -326 -477 -611 -691 -771 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 6 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 38 36 50 59 51 12 3 8 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 25. 33. 36. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -11. -23. -33. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 6. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 15. 22. 25. 23. 16. 9. 4. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 09/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)