* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 09/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 39 43 44 43 37 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 8 7 10 17 35 41 51 51 56 50 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 2 2 0 2 5 8 6 7 2 2 SHEAR DIR 331 293 287 244 240 239 250 255 276 285 297 305 304 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.2 29.8 30.6 30.9 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 158 164 172 171 167 164 162 162 164 170 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 11 9 8 11 9 10 7 9 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 72 72 65 54 42 36 33 32 31 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -8 31 41 48 47 43 14 -23 -16 -24 -26 -38 200 MB DIV 61 70 92 99 95 66 20 -27 -48 -67 -85 -72 -55 700-850 TADV -2 3 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 2 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 388 333 302 276 204 104 -150 -207 -251 -295 -312 -289 -140 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 12 11 12 10 3 2 1 2 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 35 40 54 62 5 3 3 1 0 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. -1. -10. -20. -30. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 18. 19. 18. 13. 6. 3. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 09/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)