* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 09/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 46 48 48 45 40 36 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 46 48 48 45 40 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 37 37 35 34 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 8 3 1 7 3 7 14 22 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 -1 2 0 6 -1 -1 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 27 22 15 360 359 82 149 201 205 234 241 241 235 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 27.5 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 155 153 139 127 120 115 111 108 99 85 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 68 67 63 55 52 42 33 25 21 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -18 -23 -18 22 59 54 45 48 36 22 17 3 200 MB DIV 72 75 72 81 78 77 53 12 16 7 0 -2 2 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -8 -3 -2 0 -6 -7 -4 -2 1 5 9 LAND (KM) 608 607 608 598 621 509 409 402 376 398 474 566 616 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.7 16.6 18.6 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.2 22.6 23.2 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 107.0 108.0 109.1 110.1 111.7 112.7 113.4 114.2 115.0 116.3 117.8 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 5 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 46 33 30 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 21. 23. 23. 20. 15. 11. 5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 09/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)