* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 08/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 41 49 54 58 63 62 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 41 49 54 58 63 62 60 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 33 35 38 42 47 50 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 19 21 24 27 17 15 16 21 17 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 12 9 6 2 0 0 -1 1 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 73 82 71 73 88 92 119 113 120 127 138 127 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.1 26.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 160 159 157 156 155 156 155 145 130 116 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 79 77 74 75 75 75 72 69 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 15 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 63 57 60 79 96 107 108 104 84 91 77 200 MB DIV 49 51 61 58 53 56 46 79 61 63 9 31 9 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 3 8 7 3 0 3 2 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 261 309 355 409 469 566 618 647 651 583 500 504 489 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 3 4 7 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 55 55 54 48 42 35 32 28 23 19 21 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. 4. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 19. 24. 28. 33. 32. 30. 28. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 08/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)