* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 08/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 56 65 69 71 70 67 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 56 65 69 71 70 67 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 46 52 57 61 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 23 20 24 20 18 12 15 26 19 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 10 7 6 6 3 5 0 0 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 99 79 82 82 77 73 79 95 106 99 123 114 127 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.7 27.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 160 159 157 156 157 158 151 138 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 83 81 75 76 74 78 75 70 68 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 83 66 68 66 60 75 90 110 116 109 97 86 76 200 MB DIV 76 36 39 56 55 57 67 76 60 57 38 22 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 4 4 6 2 0 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 197 243 299 344 388 483 566 607 621 627 515 477 478 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 3 7 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 57 57 57 58 57 44 37 33 31 24 18 14 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 35. 39. 41. 40. 37. 30. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 08/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)