* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 08/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 53 62 71 79 82 87 88 84 79 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 53 62 71 79 82 87 88 84 79 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 41 44 48 53 58 63 69 74 77 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 16 19 18 22 16 9 11 15 19 12 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 7 8 6 5 8 4 0 1 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 119 106 84 78 86 82 90 112 112 103 110 97 122 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 162 163 161 159 158 158 157 154 155 147 121 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -51.4 -52.1 -51.0 -51.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 9 9 7 8 7 8 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 80 84 81 83 79 76 72 71 71 74 73 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 10 11 13 13 15 17 17 20 21 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 95 94 83 82 79 63 89 111 120 121 121 103 92 200 MB DIV 97 95 57 50 65 36 56 46 78 65 82 20 1 700-850 TADV 5 1 1 1 4 8 8 8 2 -4 -1 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 113 153 200 253 304 428 464 506 542 535 494 437 484 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 8 9 9 6 4 4 3 2 6 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 55 54 55 47 38 28 24 21 17 14 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 16. 19. 21. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 23. 32. 41. 49. 52. 57. 58. 54. 49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 08/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)